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Over the past decade, the rate of 3-point shots in the NBA has significantly increased, reaching a peak in the 2020-21 season with teams taking 39.2 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. The following season saw a slight increase to 39.9 percent before starting to decline. In the most recent season, the percentage dropped to 39.5 percent, indicating that the rapid growth in 3-point shooting has started to level off. The league has reached a tipping point where the exponential rise has plateaued.

1. The NBA will break a 3-point barrier.

Then the Celtics flipped the script. They stormed to an NBA Finals victory by hoisting nearly half of their shots from deep, making 3-pointers a central part of their winning formula.

Fast forward to this preseason, and the trend took another leap. NBA teams attempted a preseason record 44.1 percent of their shots from 3-point range:

NBA 3-Point Rate History

Season

Regular

Preseason

2024-25

TBD

44.1%

2023-24

39.5%

42.6%

2022-23

38.7%

40.8%

2021-22

39.9%

41.7%

2020-21

39.2%

42.8%

2019-20

38.4%

40.7%

2018-19

35.9%

35.6%

2017-18

33.7%

35.1%

2016-17

31.6%

30.3%

2015-16

28.5%

30.0%

2014-15

26.8%

27.3%

Percentages listed represent the share of total shots taken from 3-point range.

Given this trajectory and historical trends, I’m betting that the NBA’s regular-season 3-point rate will eclipse the 40 percent mark for the first time ever. Love it or hate it, this is a copycat league, and teams are always looking to emulate what works. More teams are going to join the Long Ball revolution, pushing the league’s 3-point rate into uncharted territory.

2. Three teams will win 60-plus games this season.

Boston, Minnesota, and Oklahoma City. The Celtics brought back their whole team and with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown still improving, the ceiling is even higher. They’ve got depth, continuity, and motivation after last year’s Finals. The Timberwolves are built to win in the regular season. They’ve got lineup flexibility, a mix of size and defense, and a rising superstar in Anthony Edwards. OKC, meanwhile, has a legitimate MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the perfect blend of young talent and veteran additions to take the next step.

3. The Celtics go back-to-back.

I was more wrong about last year’s Celtics than any other champion in my 11 seasons covering the NBA. I doubted that Tatum and Brown could finally get them over the hump after so many close calls. I didn’t trust Joe Mazzulla to pull the right strings following such a shaky rookie season as head coach. And even after Boston bulldozed its way through the East, I chalked it up to a run of injured stars and predicted the Celtics would fall to Dallas in the Finals.

Well, I couldn’t have been more off. And now, I’m convinced they’re primed to repeat. Why the change of heart? Besides seeing them actually finish the job last year, there are multiple reasons to believe the Celtics could be even better this season. For one, Tatum’s jumper looks like it’s back to where it needs to be. Brown’s handle has visibly tightened up. Derrick White keeps ascending, and there’s no reason to expect that trend to stop. On top of that, young contributors like Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser are showing signs of further development.

(Amy Monks/Yahoo Sports Illustration)

Add to that another year of continuity and the deeper layers Mazzulla can implement in the system, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a team in the East with fewer questions than Boston. While other contenders are wrestling with uncertainty, the Celtics have only solidified their foundation.

Even after raising Banner 18 in Boston tonight, they'll remain doubted as a group. Tatum got benched for Team USA, and Brown was snubbed altogether. So while they may have silenced critics last season, this team is still hungry. With the roster taking another step forward, Boston looks ready to prove themselves all over again.

4. Everyone will soon realize the 2024 NBA Draft didn’t actually suck.

The criticism of this class being light on superstar talent is fair in some respects. There isn’t a surefire franchise-changing player in the mix. But championships aren’t just won by one superstar, especially in today’s NBA. Just look at the Celtics last season. They didn’t win the Finals because they had one transcendent star; they did it by rolling out six high-level starters and a deep bench.

This draft is filled with potential championship-level role players who can elevate the stars on their teams. And in both summer league and preseason alone, we already saw players begin to stand out, whether it was lottery picks like Reed Sheppard and Donovan Clingan, or sleepers like Ryan Dunn and Jaylen Wells. All throughout the draft, players are already beginning to prove that the 2024 class was an opportunity for teams to find versatile, reliable contributors who can fill their roles to perfection.

5. Dalton Knecht will be named first team All-Rookie.

Knecht’s 35-point preseason performance was a reminder of what he did regularly at Tennessee: Get so hot as a scorer that he’s unstoppable. It happened when he dropped 40 against Kentucky, 39 against Florida, and 37 against North Carolina. He had over 35 points six times last season, and at least 25 points a grand total of 13 times. While the Lakers have LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and veterans who will eat touches, it’s the presence of those proven entities that can help Knecht play with variety. There will be nights when they put the ball in his hands and let him cook, there will be others when they run him through off-ball screens to get him going. At 23 years old already as a rookie, he's physically ready for the NBA. And with the Lakers, he looks like he’s going to get a lot of opportunities.

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It was over five years ago I stood in the Raptors locker room following their NBA Finals victory over the Warriors, and watched Kawhi walk through with the limp of an elderly man. He carried the Raptors on one leg, and won a championship for his efforts.

Since leaving the Raptors for the Clippers, Kawhi has missed a staggering 40 percent of his regular-season games and 35 percent of his playoff games. Last postseason, he tried to gut it out for the Clippers, but his knee gave out again. He worked all summer to get back for opening night, only to end up sidelined indefinitely due to lingering inflammation. We’re talking about a guy who’s suffered a partially torn ACL, a torn right meniscus, and tendinopathy in both legs. His list of injuries reads like a medical textbook.

Yet somehow, the Clippers just handed him a three-year, $149.5 million extension this summer. Kawhi might still have flashes of brilliance left, but his availability is unreliable at best. This is going to be an albatross contract for LA. You can’t keep banking on Kawhi to suddenly stay healthy when his body is clearly breaking down. We’re not just looking at minor setbacks or freak accidents here. We’re talking about chronic, recurring issues. And if the Clippers are counting on him to be the cornerstone of a championship team moving forward, they’re living in a fantasy world.

7. Franz Wagner’s jumper will become the big topic in Orlando

As much as Magic fans know that I love Wagner, he is in the midst of an eight-month-long 3-point shooting slump. Look at these ugly numbers:

Timeline

Percentage

Makes

Attempts

2024-25 Preseason

0.0%

0

7

2024 Olympics

20.0%

7

35

2023-24 Playoffs

26.5%

9

34

Final 30 Games Of 2023-24

22.6%

28

124

Total

22.3%

44

197

Ever since the calendar turned to February, Wagner has gone from an acceptable shooter (34 percent in his career at the time) to a dreadful one to close last season, which carried into the playoffs and then the Olympics. And things didn’t seem better this preseason with Wagner missing all of his seven attempts.

If Wagner continues to struggle shooting the ball, his place on a Magic roster in need of proficient shooters will be questioned. Regardless of the fact he does everything else extremely well as a 6-foot-9 shot-creator who also brings high-end, versatile defense. Which is why, if he starts shooting 3s well, he has the upside to someday become one of the 20 best players in the NBA.

Wagner is a good bet to figure it out since he’s an excellent free throw shooter (85 percent in his career) with soft touch near the basket on floaters and layups. But the results are all that matter, and whether his results are promising or worrying, his results will be one of the topics of the year in Orlando.

8. Lonzo Ball gets traded to a contender.

The last regular season game that Lonzo Ball played in was on Jan. 14, 2022. The Bulls were 27-13 and the top seed in the East. Chicago won’t be that great this season, but the team should be much better. Lonzo is back following a two-year absence, and joins a much improved Coby White with Zach LaVine set to return. Plus, head coach Billy Donovan has dramatically changed Chicago’s shot diet. Last season, the Bulls ranked 29th in 3-point rate with only 35.8 percent of their shots coming beyond the arc. In preseason, they ranked seventh with 47.2 percent of shots from 3. Better players operating in a modernized system should lead to improvement.

So, why wouldn’t the Bulls keep Lonzo? After all, Chicago has historically been happy with just making the postseason. But Lonzo will be a free agent next summer alongside Josh Giddey, then White's deal is coming up during the 2026 summer, and LaVine is still signed to a borderline-untradable contract through 2027. So the guards are about to get pricey, and with Giddey and Matas Buzelis, the Bulls are already invested in other jumbo-sized ball-handlers. Odds are Lonzo will have far more value to a team trying to win a championship today than to the Bulls, and as long as he keeps looking like himself, some team will inevitably make an offer even the Bulls front office can’t refuse.

9. Bam Adebayo will have the best season of his career.

I can’t guarantee Bam that he’ll be awarded his evasive Defensive Player of the Year. But it’s obvious that he’s going to be the best he’s ever been on offense. Late last season, Adebayo finally expanded on his soft touch from midrange, and began shooting 3s. He made them at a 40 percent clip on a hair over one attempt per game. This willingness to shoot carried into the Olympics and he shot even more of them this preseason: 3.5 attempts in 20 minutes per game. In total, he hit five of his 13 tries.

Shooting is an amplifying skill. Adebayo’s improved jumper will create more space for him to capitalize on his own shot-creation skills, and it will improve floor spacing for all of his teammates.

If Jimmy Butler also manages to perform like Playoff Jimmy all season, and if the young Heat guys continue to improve, then the team could become a Finals sleeper. But at a minimum, Adebayo’s progress will set him to be an All-NBA player for the first time in his career.

10. Many bigs will suddenly become 3-point shooters.

It won’t just be Adebayo who starts shooting a higher volume of 3s. It’ll be Deandre Ayton in Portland. So will Okyeka Okongwu in Atlanta. Anthony Davis will start launching again for the Lakers. Rookies Donovan Clingan and Zach Edey will take 3s when they're open too. If you line up all 30 starting centers, over half of them will have the capability to shoot 3s. Though the big man is back, there’s no going back to the way things used to be with a league filled with all post-up behemoths.

11. Steph Curry will finish in the top-5 of MVP voting.

Steph finished third in MVP voting during the 2020-21 season, but he hasn’t sniffed the top five since. This season, that’ll change. Because the Warriors will be good again, and Steph will be tremendous.

12. Bucks GM Jon Horst will kick himself for not drafting NBA-ready prospects.

For three consecutive years, the Bucks have opted to select raw prospects in the draft. In 2022, they took MarJon Beauchamp, who looks like a bust. In 2023, they selected Andre Jackson, whose best skills as a connective playmaker and cutter are underutilized in the Doc Rivers system. And in 2024, they took guard AJ Johnson and forward Tyler Smith, neither of whom are skilled enough to contribute on a team aspiring to win a championship.

Executives around the NBA were baffled by the Johnson choice on draft night. He is raw physically, and his game wasn't developed enough to help positively contribute to his Australian team. Why select a player who is “two years away from being two years away" when Giannis Antetokounmpo remains an MVP-level player and such a massive investment was made in Damian Lillard? Young support is needed in Milwaukee sooner than later, especially given Brook Lopez is 36 and his value to the team’s new defensive system is diminished, Khris Middleton is 33 and hasn’t yet been cleared to play fives in practice, and the veteran additions of Gary Trent and Taurean Prince are solid but not game-changing.

Unless the talent of Giannis and Dame is overwhelming, the odds are this Bucks team won’t be great enough to win another title. The youth has not developed in the way Milwaukee needed to provide support behind the stars, or to turn into valuable trade assets that can be flipped. There will be a segment of fans who blame Doc for not playing the kids enough to find out what they can bring. There will be another segment of fans blaming Horst for selecting raw, underdeveloped prospects instead of opting for upperclassmen who can help now. Ultimately, all that will matter is Antetokounmpo’s opinion. Better hope Giannis stays patient.

13. Gradey Dick gets named to the 3-point shooting contest.

Dick entered the NBA as a smooth shooter out of Kansas, but struggled to find his stroke early on. He made only 28.2 percent of attempts in the G League and only 23.9 percent with the Raptors until midway through his rookie season. In mid-January, once he became a rotation regular, he shot 39.5 percent from 3. However, his role was pretty condensed, with a sizable portion of his shots coming from the corners.

This preseason, Toronto is getting Dick involved in more diverse movement actions. Here’s one example:

Gradey Dick looks like he's gonna have a massively expanded role for the Raptors this season. Missed this attempt but what a gorgeous set pic.twitter.com/UPmIXvaJm4

— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) October 20, 2024

This set is gorgeous and is clearly all about giving the second-year guard the best chance to get loose. Dick misses this attempt! But let’s value process over results here. What we’re seeing now is a big investment from Raptors head coach Darko Rajaković in maximizing Dick’s shooting prowess. With such a diverse role now, my hunch is he’ll have a big shooting season and get named to the 3-point shooting contest.

But there’s more to Dick than just the long-range shots. He’s been slipping into the cracks of defenses with timely cuts, driving hard to the rim, and even throwing down at the rim. The Raptors have a talented overall player in Dick, and he’s looking ready to grow.

14. Donte DiVincenzo averages a career-high in assists.

The Timberwolves effectively had DiVincenzo playing point guard during the preseason, allowing him to run the show more often than he was ever enabled to do last season with the Knicks. With Minnesota, 23 percent of his total possessions were pick-and-rolls. That’s up from 11 percent last season with the Knicks, per Synergy Sports. DiVincenzo will of course continue to thrive as a shooting weapon, but his greatest value could be as a set-up man next to Anthony Edwards. With Mike Conley now at 37 years old, it also shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise if DiVincenzo ends up starting at some point during the season.

15. The Sixers will make the conference finals.

At full health, the Sixers are the greatest threat to the Celtics in large part because of the challenge that Joel Embiid would present as an interior scorer. The addition of Paul George and a myriad of different role players, such as Eric Gordon and Andre Drummond, help bolster the team around Embiid. But it could actually be the continued ascension of Tyrese Maxey that is the greatest difference maker.

Of course, Embiid never has been able to be at full strength in the playoffs. George has suffered his own share of injuries too. And both are hurt already. But with the Sixers prioritizing their health for the playoffs, I believe Maxey’s development and the improved supporting cast will be enough for the Sixers to retain high seeding. And come playoff time, they’ll make it at least one step further by getting to the conference finals.

16. De’Aaron Fox will become a trade target.

Recently, Fox indicated he will wait to sign his extension with the Kings because he wants to see “where we’re at” and “if we were contending for a championship.” A spoiler alert for Fox: The Kings are not title contenders.

And if Fox becomes supermax eligible, are we sure he’s actually worth it? They’ve been average forever with him as the team’s point guard, and he’s been painfully inconsistent at times. The Kings also just drafted another point guard in Devin Carter and added a veteran in DeMar DeRozan. This is not to say the Kings shouldn’t want Fox. But what if he could be flipped for another high-level player at a different position? Or what if he could bring back multiple high-value firsts and those assets could be flipped into something to maximize this window?

Point guard is the deepest position in the NBA. There aren’t many teams that need one. But I’d imagine at least six teams would be interested in Fox, including the Heat, Lakers, Magic, Nets, Spurs, and Wizards. If the Kings are merely in the play-in conversation by February, then I expect we’ll get a notification on our phones saying that teams are making calls about Fox. That doesn’t mean the Kings would make a move. But it would mean they’re beginning to listen.

17. The Spurs start searching for their future point guard.

Chris Paul is merely a placeholder point guard for the Spurs. But their rookie lottery pick Stephon Castle isn’t necessarily the future at the position either. Castle is more of a positionless player who can do anything on the floor, including run point. Think about him like Andre Iguodala. So, it still would make sense for the Spurs to find a more pure point.

I’d imagine the Spurs will be competitive enough this season that they’ll at least begin searching for that player. Hawks point guard Trae Young and Cavaliers point guard Darius Garland are two names commonly cited as point guards that could get moved. But it seems the Hawks are going to ride things out with this new core, and the Cavaliers at least want to see how the team looks with a new head coach. Maybe the aforementioned De’Aaron Fox, who grew up in Texas, could be a Spurs target too.

This season might be too early for the Spurs to actually pull the trigger on a trade. But that time is coming soon. So the search begins.

18. SGA wins MVP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander took more 3s than usual in preseason, perhaps because he was trying out his improved mechanics. His shot looks much smoother, especially with the way he brings the ball up and releases it. And at least in preseason, it worked: He made seven of his 11 attempts.

A career 34.9 percent shooter from 3, SGA has always been a low-volume and subpar efficiency player from 3. And yet, he's averaged over 30 points in consecutive years. What if now he's a knockdown guy? Are we talking about a player who could push 35 points per game? It can't be ruled out when he already dominates every other spot on the floor.

And with the Thunder built to win over 60 games, this makes SGA a ripe candidate to win his first MVP.

19. Victor Wembanyama will win Defensive Player of the Year and be named first team All-NBA.

Back in June, I posted this on X:

26/12/6/4 for Victor Wembanyama this season. All-Star. All-NBA. DPOY.

— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) July 1, 2024

I stand by it.

20. The Suns will win over 55 games, but that won’t stop Kevin Durant trade rumors from circulating.

I really like this Suns roster. Tyus Jones is one of the most underrated signings of the summer. Ryan Dunn looks like the steal of the draft. Their bench is way better. And they upgraded the head coach position with Mike Budenholzer. Despite all their issues last season, they still won 49 games. And yet their over/under is only 48.5 despite the improvements? Strange.

My hunch is no matter how great the Suns are, we’re going to get a report ahead of the deadline that the Rockets, once again, are trying to acquire Kevin Durant using Phoenix’s own first-round draft picks. This doesn’t necessarily mean the Suns would actually bite. Nor does it even mean that Durant is Houston’s preference; my impression is the Rockets would prefer someone much younger. I’m merely predicting that we’ll get that trade rumor scrolling across our timelines.

21. Miles McBride will take a leap.

McBride has a clear path to contend for Sixth Man of the Year. McBride’s defensive intensity, efficient shooting, and dynamic shot creation have steadily improved, as shown by his final two months last season when he averaged nearly 12 points per game on 39 percent from 3. Now, the Knicks are banking on McBride to fill the void left by DiVincenzo. While I have DiVincenzo winning Sixth Man of the Year, McBride’s expanded opportunity positions him as a key figure off the bench that will prove the Knicks were in the right to continue betting on him.

22. Pacers fans will want to trade Bennedict Mathurin.

Mathurin is a relentless downhill attacker who’s flashed go-to scoring upside. But he’s also a flake on defense, so much so that this season he will become the obvious odd-man out in Indiana.

With Tyrese Haliburton leading the Pacers backcourt, they can’t afford to have other negative defenders by his side. Andrew Nembhard might be undersized, but he’s a pest. Ben Sheppard brings more complementary offensive skills and far better defense. Mathurin is by no means a bad player. In fact, he could still end up really, really good considering he’s only 22 years old. But can he reach that potential with so many other offensive presences on the Pacers? In addition to the aforementioned names, the Pacers already have Pascal Siakam, who handles the ball, and Jarace Walker could have a bigger role this season too.

Mathurin therefore makes sense as a trade candidate to bolster the core. Whether there’s a deal out there that makes sense for the Pacers remains to be seen. But Pacers fans will be busy on the trade machine.

23. The Hawks will become League Pass favorites.

For a long time, I’ve been the guy Hawks fans have dreaded on the national level because of my criticism of Trae Young. I have long ripped Trae for his lackluster defense and unwillingness to move without the ball in his hands. But last season things were different. Even though the Hawks won only 36 games and missed the playoffs for the first time in four years, I found myself appreciating Trae more than ever. Because he brought greater effort on defense and because he began embracing motion principles in Quin Snyder’s offense.

I expect these positive trends to continue this season and Trae, who just turned 26, will be entering the prime of his career. Fortunately for him, the roster looks much improved. The "your turn, my turn" style should be gone now that Dejounte Murray has been traded, which frees touches for a bunch of ball-sharing players like Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Larry Nance, and Kobe Bufkin. (Johnson, by the way, will average something like 23/9/4 and be in the All-Star conversation this season.)

Whether veterans or young guys, it’s pretty clear what type of player the Hawks front office is identifying with an ability to thrive off-ball, but also make plays with the ball in their hands regardless of position.

Young is the star of the show in Atlanta, the reason fans of opposing teams will tune in on TV or buy tickets when the Hawks are in town. But his development, supported by a roster littered with versatile talent, operating in a system that plays fast and free, will make the collective one of the funner teams to watch in the entire NBA.

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The Wizards won 15 games last season, and they lost two of their best players with forward Deni Avdija being traded to Portland and point guard Tyus Jones walking in free agency to Phoenix. This team will STINK.

But that’s by design. This season, the greatest victory aside from a championship, will be the opportunity to draft Duke forward Cooper Flagg. What matters most, despite the losing, is that progress occurs. Will Jordan Poole get back on the same track he was on for a while in Golden State? Will Bub Carrington extend his range to 3? Does Alex Sarr begin transforming Washington's defense? Does Kyshawn George translate his preseason flashes to real play? Will Bilal Coulibaly continue looking like a steal?

Young teams don’t win in today’s NBA. And the league has a ton of teams actually competing for the playoffs. That is why the Wizards will lose a ton of games, and be an eyesore on many nights. But for the hardcore fans of the team, they have more good young players to watch get better than they have had in many years. And perhaps, all the losing will be worth it if come lottery night in May they get lucky.

25. Zach Edey will prove the doubters wrong.

At 7-foot-3 and 299 pounds, Edey will serve as a lob threat for Ja Morant and dominate the post, creating mismatches and drawing double teams. Taylor Jenkins has given him the green light to shoot, so expect the occasional 3 as well. Defensively, where critics have questioned him, Edey will be an imposing shot-blocker, especially when flanked by Jaren Jackson Jr. While Edey was instructed to stay out of foul trouble at Purdue, he’ll have the freedom to defend with full effort in Memphis.

26. Tobias Harris will be a fantasy basketball steal again, and beneficial to the Pistons.

Is Harris an incredibly flawed and often frustrating NBA player? Absolutely, and that’s precisely why Sixers fans are relieved to see him gone. But let’s not ignore the positives here: Harris can score, knock down 3s, pull down rebounds, and even dish out a few assists. That’s why he consistently finishes as a top-50 fantasy player. Now, on a young Pistons squad, he’s stepping into a role where his experience and skill set should translate into plenty of opportunities.

And while Harris might have been a net negative on the court for the Sixers, that doesn’t mean he won’t be a valuable addition for a Pistons team coming off a 14-win season. For Detroit, there’s nowhere to go but up, and Harris could provide the stability and scoring punch they desperately need.

27. Dereck Lively will not become a 3-point shooter.

Lively made his lone 3-pointer in the NBA Finals, but it isn’t a sign of things to come this season. I just don’t trust his touch as a sub-60 percent free throw shooter going back to high school. He’s always fancied himself a shooter but was never actually effective at it. At Duke, he missed 11 of his 13 attempts from beyond the arc. In the NBA, he may go through spurts spacing from the corner, but I anticipate the Mavericks will learn he’s a true throwback big who needs to be closer to the basket.

28. The Hornets will make the play-in.

Call me crazy, but no East team that missed the plan-in last year has a better shot at breaking through this season than the Hornets. It all starts with LaMelo Ball. When healthy, he’s already proven he’s an All-Star-level talent. At one point, he even looked like he was on a future MVP trajectory, thanks to his elite court vision and scoring ability. The big question? His health. He's played only 58 games over the last two seasons.

If LaMelo can stay on the floor, he can elevate the Hornets to a new level because now he has a supporting cast with similarly high upside young players. Brandon Miller has All-Star potential, and in preseason the signs were promising that they can shine together.

Melo-Miller duo is gonna be fun pic.twitter.com/785iPkgt6M

— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) October 20, 2024

In the play above, LaMelo set a hard on-ball screen for Miller, who drove and drew two defenders before kicking it back out to LaMelo. Then LaMelo drove and kicked it back out to Miller, who splashed a 3. It’s a simple two-man game action, but it’s a positive sign that Melo will share responsibilities with Miller.

Miller isn’t just a one-dimensional player either. He’s a skilled rebounder and a versatile defender, two things that could make him an under-the-radar All-Star candidate. With Miles Bridges, Grant Williams, and Josh Green, plus Tidjane Saluan looking more ready than expected as a rookie, the Hornets have a surprising amount of depth at wing. Tre Mann can provide a spark off the bench. And Mark Williams was one of the NBA's better rim protectors last season. Add it all up, and the Hornets have a lot of talent across the roster.

Charlotte also has a new head coach in Charles Lee, who was an assistant in Boston and is immediately installing a 3-point-happy system. The Hornets launched 49.3 percent of their shots from 3 during the preseason, a massive rise from the middle-of-the-pack last season. With a new system, an improved Miller, and a healthy Ball, the Hornets will be in the playoff conversation.

29. Cam Thomas will finish in the top 10 for scoring.

A couple seasons ago, Thomas became the youngest player in NBA history to log three-straight 40-point games. Then over the final month of last season, he averaged 26.6 points on superb efficiency. Now he has a new head coach in Jordi Fernandez, who has expressed belief in him.

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On such a bad Nets team that’s focused on player development, you’d think they’d use this season to figure out what they really have in their 23-year-old scorer ahead of his restricted free agency. Is Thomas just an inconsistent scorer who doesn’t offer much else? Or is he capable of so much more when empowered to give it?

For the Nets to win games, and to project to have a brighter future, Thomas will need to show development as a playmaker and commitment to defense. But he’s absolutely going to get buckets, and I’d imagine the ball will be in his hands enough to allow him to eclipse 26 or 27 points per game, putting him in the top 10 on the scoring leaderboard.

30. Rookie Jaylon Tyson will be an important figure for Cleveland.

Max Strus will miss at least six weeks to start the season for the Cavaliers. A tough loss, to be sure. But the silver lining is that rookie Jaylon Tyson should receive an extended look, following what was an outstanding summer league and preseason for him. Tyson is a 6-foot-6, do-it-all wing who can offer some playmaking, shooting off the catch, and versatile defense.

Although the Cavaliers will miss the shooting prowess that Strus brings to the floor, Tyson’s skill set could be what the Cavaliers desperately need at the wing position. With all the buzz around trading a piece like Jarrett Allen or Darius Garland to go after a player like Brandon Ingram, what if the answer is already on the roster? Sometimes, the answer isn’t about making a splashy move. Sometimes, it’s about letting the young talent prove it belongs.

31. The Trail Blazers will trade Deandre Ayton to the Pelicans.

At some point, the Trail Blazers have to open the center position for their rookie lottery pick Donovan Clingan. Ayton will just be in the way. But with Ayton due $34 million this season and $35.6 million next season, there really aren't too many teams that'd want to or even could invest in him. So few teams even need a center. But the Pelicans do badly. Ayton for Brandon Ingram seems mutually beneficial to me.

32. The Jazz will be too good to tank.

Lauri Markkanen is back, and can’t be traded. Keyonte George will build on an impressive rookie season. And the roster has plenty of other talented pieces like Collin Sexton and John Collins, plus young dudes like Taylor Hendricks and Cody Williams who could pop. This puts the Jazz in a strange position: Not quite bad enough to have the highest lottery odds. But not quite good enough to make the play-in. But with flattened lottery odds, this isn’t such a bad thing as long as Utah doesn’t accidentally sneak into the play-in. If the Jazz land right in the sweet spot as a 12-seed or 13-seed, fans will therefore be treated to a season full of promise for a bright future, and a chance at a prize on lottery night.

33. You will fall in love with Reed Sheppard.

Expect to see a lot more of these this season from Sheppard:

I'm buying more Reed Sheppard stock pic.twitter.com/lzHxyZJkEp

— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) October 16, 2024

The funny thing is this is just one of the two shots he hit from 3 all preseason. Sheppard didn’t even shoot the ball well, and yet he was a major positive for the Rockets with his scoring inside the arc, slick playmaking, and defense. But Sheppard made over 50 percent of his 3s as a Kentucky freshman, and eventually the shots will fall in Houston too.

34. The Pelicans will have to make a big trade.

Zion Williamson is finally taking his fitness seriously. Is this the year Zion finally becomes the LeBron/Shaq/Hulk hybrid that we all dreamed he’d become? Or are we about to get another season of “Hey, Zion’s on a minutes restriction” updates, sprinkled with some mysterious soft tissue injuries? If we get Prime Zion, then he’ll be surrounded by quite a strong overall roster. The front office made some changes this summer, adding a point guard in Dejounte Murray who complements a cupboard of scorers like CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram, and versatile wings like Trey Murphy and Herb Jones. But the Pelicans front office spent all summer shopping Ingram because this roster is incomplete, and not quite great enough to make the conference finals for the first time in history.

What’s missing on the Pelicans is a reliable big. A total of $5.7 million in salary was invested in the position on three players: journeyman veteran Daniel Theis, Bosnian draft-and-stash Karlo Matković, and Baylor freshman first rounder Yves Missi. They’ll try to patch things together to begin the season, and play some small ball with Zion/Herb frontcourts (in a league going big, it’s now a zag to go small). But the position still needs an upgrade to be taken seriously as an actual contender.

The Pelicans have all of their own future firsts, plus a swap with the Bucks in 2026 and the rights to receive their pick in 2027. Between Ingram, McCollum, and those picks, they have plenty of ammo to seek an upgrade.

Unless, of course, Missi is good right away much like Dereck Lively was for the Mavericks on their run to the NBA Finals. Throughout the pre-draft process, the Pelicans were constantly linked to Missi, who presents significant upside as a highflier who can punish the rim on offense, protect the paint on defense, and bring energy as a relentless rebounder. If the Pelicans figure out the center position, then the sky’s the limit.

35. Russell Westbrook will be a disaster in Denver.

Russ didn’t work out in Los Angeles. For the Lakers. Or the Clippers. He doesn’t get to the rim with the ferocious power that he once did. And from the perimeter, he’s gone from the NBA’s worst high volume shooter to one of the worst low-volume shooters. The Nuggets lack shooting around Nikola Jokić, and Westbrook won’t help those matters.

36. The NBA Cup will grow on you even more.

Rip it all you want as a gimmick, but the NBA Cup sure beats standard regular-season games. The games absolutely had elevated intensity last season. The stakes were higher. It gave meaning to a typically meaningless part of the calendar year. And I expect the second year will win over even more fans than the first year did.